Barclays Premier League results analysis
Hashfootery is about guessing scores, right? Surely you can use an analysis of historical results to help? Well, yes - you can certainly crunch the numbers and inform your forecasts with what are the most likely Premier League scorelines, but you probably have a feeling for those already: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0. Ultimately you have to use a bit of skill and guesswork to fine-tune your prediction and then cross your fingers and hope some good fortune goes your way. There are any number of reasonable factors you can start considering:
- manager under pressure
- evening kickoff on a chilly Monday night
- mysterious dip in Chelsea form
- team selection
- what Lawro says
I defy anyone to ignore those sort of factors, relying solely on a probabilistic approach based on the charts below and out-perform the leading lights of the hashfootery standings any given month.
Using the Premier League results matrix from the appropriate page on Wikipedia, I have analysed the distribution of scorelines from the 2009/10 season. It turns out that 2-1 was the most frequent outcome, with approximately 1 in 9 games finishing with that result.
Most pundits agree that the current season has produced more unexpected scorelines than usual with more draws. The results distribution as of 16 Jan 2011 shows that approximately 1 in 7 matches have finished 1-1.
20 January 2011